Estimated car value in future: residual values for dealers
How to estimate a car's value in future – depreciation curves from live listings, residual values by fuel type, EV volatility and cars going up in value.
· 8 min read
The most reliable estimated car value in future comes from today's market: look at what the same model, one or two model years older and with the mileage your car will have by then, is advertised for now. Then correct for known events such as a facelift, new-car price cuts or subsidy changes. For dealers, it shows how much value a car loses while in stock.
Estimated car value in future: how to work it out for 6 or 12 months
To estimate a car's future value, use the age curve visible in current listings rather than a fixed depreciation percentage. The method:
- Find today's median for your car's model, engine and model year in the country where you sell.
- Find the median for the same car one model year older, with the mileage your car will have in 12 months.
- The difference is your expected annual loss at this point of the car's life; halve it for six months.
- Adjust for known events: model replacement, facelift, new-car discounts, tax or subsidy changes, low-emission zone rules.
- Recheck every month for cars that stay in stock longer than planned.
This works because the market already prices older versions of your car today. You are not predicting the future from a formula; you are reading it from the cars that are a year ahead of yours.
A real depreciation curve: Volkswagen Golf in Germany
A real example shows how the curve looks. According to listings tracked by MyCarDealer in Germany in October 2026, Volkswagen Golf median asking prices by model year were:
| Model year | Median asking price | Median mileage | Change vs two years newer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | €22,360 | 27,500 km | – |
| 2022 | €19,950 | 66,900 km | −€2,410 |
| 2020 | €16,997 | 86,200 km | −€2,953 |
| 2018 | €13,860 | 109,000 km | −€3,137 |
Three things stand out. First, the loss in euros is fairly steady at roughly €1,200 to €1,600 per year across this range, so in percentage terms depreciation speeds up as the car gets older and cheaper (about 5% a year between 2024 and 2022 cars, about 9% a year between 2020 and 2018 cars). Second, mileage rises with age in the same listings, so part of each step is the mileage effect. Third, the mix of engines changes between years, which is why you should always compare like with like for the exact car you hold.
For car dealers
Know your margin before you buy
MyCarDealer compares any car from an auction or listing with the market in your country and shows the net margin after VAT, transport and costs – and the maximum bid.
Request accessThe factors that speed up depreciation the most
Depreciation is driven by a handful of factors, and most of them can be checked before you buy.
| Factor | Effect on future value | What to check |
|---|---|---|
| Age | Steady loss every year, steepest in the first years in percentage terms | Model year, first registration date |
| Mileage | Sharp steps around round thresholds | Expected mileage at the time of sale |
| Model cycle | A facelift or new generation pulls down the old one | Announced launches |
| New-car pricing | Discounts, price cuts and pre-registrations compete with young used cars | Current new-car offers |
| Fuel type and regulation | Diesel restrictions, low-emission zones, CO2-based taxes | Local rules in your market |
| Supply waves | Large returns of lease or rental cars of the same model | Fleet and lease return volumes |
| Specification | Unpopular colours, manual gearbox in automatic segments | Demand in your market |
For a dealer, model cycle and supply waves are the most dangerous because they hit a whole group of cars at once. A batch of ex-lease cars returning at the same time can push the median down within weeks. See ex-lease cars for sale for how those waves reach the trade.
Why residual values of electric cars are so volatile
Residual values of electric cars move more than those of petrol and diesel cars because the price of the new car, the technology and public support all change faster. Three drivers dominate:
- New-car prices and subsidies. In Germany, the federal environmental bonus (Umweltbonus) for electric cars stopped taking applications at the end of 17 December 2023, earlier than planned. From 2026, Germany has introduced a new income-related purchase grant for new electric cars first registered from 1 January 2026, worth up to €6,000 for battery-electric cars according to the European Alternative Fuels Observatory. Every such change moves the price of nearly new used EVs.
- Technology. Newer battery generations with more range and faster charging make older versions look dated sooner.
- Battery health uncertainty. Buyers discount cars whose battery condition they cannot verify. A battery report reduces that discount; see the EV battery health check.
In practice this means that the age curve of an EV is less smooth than the Golf curve above: a new battery version, a software update or a change in new-car pricing can open a gap between two neighbouring model years overnight. For EVs, compare only cars with the same battery size, keep stock times short and re-price more often. Our guide to used electric cars for dealers covers the details.
Holding risk: what a month in stock really costs
Every month a car stands in stock, it loses value, and that loss is a real cost even if no invoice arrives. Using the Golf curve above, a model year 2022 Golf at about €20,000 loses roughly €1,500 a year at current market prices, or about €120 a month. Add the financing cost: at an assumed 6% interest on €17,000 of capital, that is another €85 a month. Before insurance, space and advertising, the car costs about €200 a month just to stand still.
That is why the future value matters at the buying stage. If you expect a car to take three months to sell, plan for about €600 of value loss and financing on a car like this, and buy accordingly. If the car is an EV or a model about to be replaced, plan for more.
Which used cars hold or gain value?
A small group of cars hold their value well or even go up in value, but they are exceptions, not a stock strategy. Cars going up in value usually share several characteristics:
- Limited production or a special edition with a clear identity.
- Enthusiast appeal – performance versions, manual sports cars, the last version of an engine that is no longer made.
- Originality and condition – unmodified, low mileage, full documented history.
- A growing collector market for youngtimers of a certain age.
Among everyday cars, models that hold value best tend to be reliable petrol and hybrid cars with strong demand and limited supply, popular SUVs and automatic versions in markets that prefer them. Even then, the advantage is a slower decline, not a gain. Treat any "this car will rise in value" story with caution unless the market already shows it in current prices.
How to use future value estimates when buying
Use future value as part of the buying decision, not as an afterthought:
- Define the exit before you buy: expected selling price and expected days in stock.
- Deduct the expected value loss for that period from the selling price.
- Shorten target stock times for volatile segments (EVs, models facing a facelift).
- Watch the median of the models you hold and react when it starts to slip.
- Sell to the trade early when a model starts falling faster than your margin.
MyCarDealer helps with the last two steps: it values each car from current listings in the dealer's own country, so a falling median shows up in the margin of the cars you hold and the ones you are about to buy. You can check a single car with the free valuation.
Frequently asked questions
How do I estimate what my car will be worth in the future?
Look at today's asking prices for the same model, engine and version that is one or two years older and has the mileage your car will have by then. That is the best guide to its future value. Then adjust for known events such as a new model or tax changes.
How much value does a used car lose per year?
It varies by model, age and fuel type. In listings tracked by MyCarDealer in Germany in October 2026, the Volkswagen Golf lost roughly €1,200 to €1,600 per model year between 2018 and 2024 cars, which means a higher percentage loss for older cars.
Which factors speed up depreciation the most?
Age and mileage are the main drivers. On top of them, a new model generation, new-car price cuts, a wave of returning lease cars and changes in taxes or subsidies can push values down quickly for a whole group of cars.
Why do electric cars lose value faster?
Not all of them do, but EV values are more volatile because new-car prices, subsidies and technology change quickly, and buyers discount cars whose battery health is unknown. Shorter stock times and a battery report help reduce the risk.
Which cars are going up in value?
Mostly limited editions, enthusiast cars and well-preserved youngtimers with full history. For normal dealer stock, rising values are rare; the realistic goal is to buy models that lose value slowly.