New car registrations in Europe 2026: used supply impact
New car registrations in Europe in 2026 and what they mean for used car supply, ex-lease returns and prices over the next three years.
· 6 min read
New car registrations in Europe are recovering slowly: according to ACEA, the EU registered 10.81 million new cars in 2025 and 7.55 million in January–August 2026, up 5.3% on the same period of 2025. For used-car dealers, the numbers matter because today's registrations are the ex-lease and ex-fleet supply of 2028–2030 – and that supply will be far more electric and hybrid than today's.
New car registrations in Europe: how many cars each year?
The EU registers between roughly 10 and 13 million new cars a year, and since the pandemic it has stayed at the lower end of that range. ACEA's annual figures for the EU:
| Year | EU new car registrations | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | about 13 million | – | Pre-pandemic level |
| 2020 | 9.9 million | −23.7% | Biggest yearly drop on record |
| 2021 | 9.7 million | −2.4% | Semiconductor shortage; 3.3 million below 2019 |
| 2022 | below 10 million | – | Supply still constrained |
| 2023 | 10.5 million | +13.9% | Recovery |
| 2024 | about 10.6 million | small rise | |
| 2025 | 10.81 million | +1.8% | Still well below pre-pandemic levels |
| Jan–Aug 2026 | 7.55 million | +5.3% |
The 2019 figure is derived from ACEA's 2020 decline; the 2024 figure from the 2025 growth rate.
The gap to 2019 – roughly two to three million cars a year in 2020–2022 – is the single most important fact for anyone buying young used cars in 2026.
How do new car registrations affect future used car supply?
New registrations turn into used supply with a delay of three to four years, the typical length of a lease or company-car contract. Private buyers keep their cars longer, so their cars reach the used market more slowly and more spread out over time. That creates a clear chain:
- Year 0: a car is registered, often by a leasing company, fleet, rental firm or the manufacturer itself.
- Years 3–4: lease and fleet cars return and are sold through remarketing, auctions and dealer networks.
- Years 5+: private-owner cars reach the market in larger numbers.
Fleet and lease registrations matter more than the total, because they come back on a schedule. A year with many company-car registrations produces a wave of three-year-old cars three years later. Our guides on ex-lease cars for sale and fleet auctions explain where those cars are sold.
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Request accessWhy weak registrations made young used cars scarce
Weak registrations in 2020–2022 are why three- to five-year-old used cars have been scarce and expensive. Fewer new cars meant fewer lease returns in 2023–2026, and when supply was short in 2021–2022, manufacturers and dealers had little reason to push short-term registrations and demonstrators, which normally reach the market as nearly new cars.
The effect works through slowly. Since registrations recovered to 10.5 million in 2023 and edged higher in 2024 and 2025, returns from those years are larger. Supply of young used cars should therefore improve through 2026–2028 – but from a lower base than before the pandemic, because registrations have not returned to 2019 levels.
Which segments will have more ex-lease returns?
The powertrain mix of new registrations tells you what the returns will look like. ACEA's market shares for the EU:
| Powertrain | 2023 | 2025 | Jan–Aug 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Battery-electric | 14.6% | 17.4% | 21.7% |
| Hybrid-electric | 25.8% | 34.5% | 36.6% |
| Plug-in hybrid | 7.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% |
| Petrol | 35.3% | 26.6% | 21.7% |
| Diesel | 13.6% | 8.9% | 7.3% |
Three conclusions for the next three years:
- Electric cars: more returns every year. 1.88 million battery-electric cars were registered in the EU in 2025, and battery-electric registrations grew by 74.2% in France and 53.1% in Germany in January–August 2026. Many of them are company or lease cars, which come back after three or four years. Expect plentiful used EV supply in 2028–2030 and pressure on their prices; our guide to used electric cars for dealers covers how to buy them safely.
- Hybrids: hybrids are now the most popular powertrain in the new-car market, so young used hybrids will become far more common – but demand for them is strong too.
- Diesel: young used diesels will become scarce. With diesel at 7.3% of new registrations, the supply of three-year-old diesels in 2029 will be a fraction of today's. For buyers who still need diesel, that supports prices of young diesels.
Petrol is shrinking too, as hybrids replace conventional petrol cars, which means fewer simple, cheap petrol cars in the young used market.
How dealers can use registration data
Registration data is most useful as a three-year forecast of your buying conditions. A practical approach:
- Track ACEA's monthly release and your country's national data for total registrations, the powertrain mix and, where available, fleet registrations.
- Shift your three-year view: models and powertrains that grow strongly in new registrations today will be plentiful as used cars later, and their residual values are more exposed. Our article on residual values explains how dealers estimate them.
- Watch for registration pushes. Months when manufacturers or dealers register many cars to hit targets produce nearly new cars that compete with your young used stock a few months later.
- Check today's market price before every purchase. Supply forecasts tell you where prices are heading; the current market tells you what to pay. MyCarDealer shows the market price of the same model, engine and year in your country from current listings and the net margin after VAT and costs. Value one car for free on the homepage.
Frequently asked questions
New car registrations in Europe: how many cars each year?
According to ACEA, the EU registered 10.81 million new cars in 2025, up 1.8% on 2024, and 7.55 million in January–August 2026. Before the pandemic, the EU registered around 13 million a year; in 2020 and 2021 it fell below 10 million.
How do new car registrations affect future used car supply?
Most lease and company cars return after three to four years, so registrations today determine the supply of young used cars three to four years later. Weak registration years create scarcity; strong years, especially in fleet channels, create plentiful supply.
Which segments will have more ex-lease returns?
Battery-electric cars and hybrids, whose share of new registrations has risen from 14.6% and 25.8% in 2023 to 21.7% and 36.6% in January–August 2026. Diesel returns will shrink sharply, as diesel's share of new registrations fell to 7.3%.
Why did weak registrations make young used cars scarce?
EU registrations fell to 9.9 million in 2020 and 9.7 million in 2021, about three million below 2019. Those cars would have returned from leases and fleets in 2023–2026, so the used market has had fewer three- to five-year-old cars to sell.
Will used car supply improve in 2026?
Gradually. Returns from the stronger 2023–2025 registration years are larger, so the supply of young used cars should improve through 2026–2028, though from a lower base than before the pandemic and with far more electric and hybrid cars in the mix.